Approaching Complexity

The notion of beliefs
Most people form their belief by listening to people they trust, teachers, lecturers, parents.

Beliefs can change. But if they become strongly held, and particularly if we build our identity around them, they become to act as perception filters. Beliefs can be seen as conceptual frameworks that help us make sense of the world.

The problem is that this filter can evolve into confirmation bias. We tend to interpret new information in a way that reinforces our existing beliefs. We will seek out this kind of information. Furthermore, if we are faced with information that contradicts our beliefs, we will either forget or discard this information.

We do that to avoid cognitive dissonance. The mental distress caused by information that does not fit our understanding of the world.

It is important to differentiate evidence with the interpretation of said evidence.

Why the authorship question?
The sociology of knowledge: "the study of the relationship between human thought and the social context within which it arises, and of effects, prevailing ideas have on societies".

"Science progresses one funeral at a time" - Max Planck, means that paradigm progress only when people with strong belief gave up on them (died). People have vested interests and will defend their opinion until they die. The all process can take a full generation or more.
 * 1) Usually, you start with an accepted truth.
 * 2) Then, at one point, an anomaly occurs. People usually set it aside but you could investigate it. If you investigate it, you create a crisis.
 * 3) People dislike crisis because they shake the paradigm they believe in.
 * 4) You create a new world view
 * 5) New paradigm
 * 6) Back to point 1

In the case of Shakespeare, there is a cult around him and a full industry around his work. This kind of vested interests gets people to stick to the old paradigm.

AHC

Generate several hypotheses, ideally MECE.

Find the evidence you would expect to find if certain hypothesis were true. Whether or not you currently have them or not.